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Critical paths in a metapopulation model of H1N1: Efficiently delaying influenza spreading through flight cancellation

Identifieur interne : 000A77 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000A76; suivant : 000A78

Critical paths in a metapopulation model of H1N1: Efficiently delaying influenza spreading through flight cancellation

Auteurs : Jose Marcelino ; Marcus Kaiser

Source :

RBID : PMC:3392097

Abstract

Disease spreading through human travel networks has been a topic of great interest in recent years, as witnessed during outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1) or SARS pandemics. One way to stop spreading over the airline network are travel restrictions for major airports or network hubs based on the total number of passengers of an airport. Here, we test alternative strategies using edge removal, cancelling targeted flight connections rather than restricting traffic for network hubs, for controlling spreading over the airline network. We employ a SEIR metapopulation model that takes into account the population of cities, simulates infection within cities and across the network of the top 500 airports, and tests different flight cancellation methods for limiting the course of infection. The time required to spread an infection globally, as simulated by a stochastic global spreading model was used to rank the candidate control strategies. The model includes both local spreading dynamics at the level of populations and long-range connectivity obtained from real global airline travel data. Simulated spreading in this network showed that spreading infected 37% less individuals after cancelling a quarter of flight connections between cities, as selected by betweenness centrality. The alternative strategy of closing down whole airports causing the same number of cancelled connections only reduced infections by 18%. In conclusion, selecting highly ranked single connections between cities for cancellation was more effective, resulting in fewer individuals infected with influenza, compared to shutting down whole airports. It is also a more efficient strategy, affecting fewer passengers while producing the same reduction in infections.


Url:
DOI: 10.1371/4f8c9a2e1fca8
PubMed: 22919563
PubMed Central: 3392097


Affiliations:


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PMC:3392097

Le document en format XML

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<p>Disease spreading through human travel networks has been a topic of great interest in recent years, as witnessed during outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1) or SARS pandemics. One way to stop spreading over the airline network are travel restrictions for major airports or network hubs based on the total number of passengers of an airport. Here, we test alternative strategies using edge removal, cancelling targeted flight connections rather than restricting traffic for network hubs, for controlling spreading over the airline network. We employ a SEIR metapopulation model that takes into account the population of cities, simulates infection within cities and across the network of the top 500 airports, and tests different flight cancellation methods for limiting the course of infection. The time required to spread an infection globally, as simulated by a stochastic global spreading model was used to rank the candidate control strategies. The model includes both local spreading dynamics at the level of populations and long-range connectivity obtained from real global airline travel data. Simulated spreading in this network showed that spreading infected 37% less individuals after cancelling a quarter of flight connections between cities, as selected by betweenness centrality. The alternative strategy of closing down whole airports causing the same number of cancelled connections only reduced infections by 18%. In conclusion, selecting highly ranked single connections between cities for cancellation was more effective, resulting in fewer individuals infected with influenza, compared to shutting down whole airports. It is also a more efficient strategy, affecting fewer passengers while producing the same reduction in infections.</p>
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<funding-statement>Supported by WCU program through the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (R32-10142). Marcus Kaiser was also supported by the Royal Society (RG/2006/R2), the CARMEN e-science project (http://www.carmen.org.uk) funded by EPSRC (EP/E002331/1), and (EP/G03950X/1). Jose Marcelino was supported by EPSRC PhD studentship (CASE/CNA/06/25) with a contribution from e-Therapeutics plc. </funding-statement>
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